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		<title>The Fix Is Not a Cap on Losses; It Is a Floor on Values: Uncle Sam needs to have faith in America</title>
		<link>http://quorumassociates.com/thoughtleadership/mortgage-crisis</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Sep 2008 23:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgage crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[negative equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[property value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sub-prime lending]]></category>

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This article is written by Francis Goldwyn, Managing Director, Quorum Associates LLC
Banks and Wall Street have invested heavily in the mortgage  business over the [...]]]></description>
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<h1 class="byline">This article is written by Francis Goldwyn, Managing Director, Quorum Associates LLC</h1>
<p>Banks and Wall Street have invested heavily in the mortgage  business over the last five to seven years, seeking above average returns. They  bought mortgage processors, lenders, and brokers. They build their syndication  and securitization teams to enhance the flow of funds. I deeply believe that  much of this has been good for the American homeowner and the global financial  system. However, some of this has been driven by the lure of excessive gains  and fungible risks. The lessons here are that in the long run, there are no  excessive gains and that the sale and transfer of risk does not eliminate risk.  It just moves it around.</p>
<p>The crisis facing the financial system and the residential  real estate market in the United    States is due to mistakes made by both banks  and homeowners. The problem is that the banks are large enough for the  government to fix their problem with taxpayer money; the homeowners are too  small and too many for the government to fix their problem with money.</p>
<p>At the corporate level, the losses have been booked and the  senior management of the firms has been focused on the liquidity of their  balance sheets, as they should be. At that level, money and mergers solve a lot  of systemic problems. These executives are not involved deep down the food  chain with the issues facing the homeowners. They cannot deal with a  multibillion-dollar problem on their balance sheet one mortgage at a time. That  is delegated to those closer to the individual mortgages. This is where the  problem resides. It is also where the long-term systemic fix needs to be made.</p>
<p>In dealing with this crisis, the government needs to  remember the social contract all Americans made with our government and renew  at every election. The government of the United   States and each individual State of the Union  need to appreciate that when a lender forecloses on a house, you break a  family; you wound a neighborhood, and hurt a community. Do that enough times  and you rip the fabric of our society. America is about to do that to a  huge number of homeowners, neighborhoods and communities all across the  country. The long-term consequences will be deeply damaging. The time has come  for government to play a role.</p>
<p>When people buy a house they do not stop investing in that  home. They remodel the kitchen, buy new appliances, paint and wallpaper,  improve electrical and plumbing, replace the roof or put in a swimming pool.  They continue to make investments over the life of their ownership. They do  this with the firm understanding, supported by real estate brokers, bankers and  appraisers, that their investments increase the value of their homes. For many  Americans, this is their nest egg, the money they will retire on when they stop  working. So after all that investment, it can be shocking to learn that the  current market value is less than the amount due on the mortgage.</p>
<p>When a family cannot pay its mortgage, or finds that the  market value of their home is less than the face value of their mortgage,  reality sets in very fast. David Streitfeld, a writer for the New York Times,  wrote an excellent article in the September 19, 2008 issue called &ldquo;Coming Up  Short.&rdquo; The article is one of the best examples of what is going on, down the  food chain at the banks, mortgage companies, loan service companies, and  financial institutions. There are many such articles on the Internet and the  enormous pain and frustration they all express is deeply disturbing. </p>
<p>In the Streitfeld article, a family gets a new job and wants  to move. When they went to sell their home, they discovered that the market had  imploded and the best offer they could get was for less than the value of their  mortgage. They acted in good faith and tried to execute a &ldquo;short sale&rdquo; and  sought lender approval. In the end, it was lender intransigence and bad faith  that led to failure. This is a sad, regrettable and avoidable story. </p>
<p>Part of the problem facing the financial system today is  denial. It is not denial on the part of regulators or on the senior executives  of banks or financial service firms, or of traders or homeowners. It is denial  on the part of mortgage lenders, loan service companies and syndicated mortgage  portfolios trustees. They seem unwilling to accept the fact that property  values have fallen sharply, or the word of any borrower who claims distress.  But that does not relieve the lender of responsibility to act honestly and  fairly to mitigate loss. Furthermore, it does not mean that all borrowers in  distress are dishonest. This is part of the problem that needs to be addressed. </p>
<p>Lenders may be advised to take no action that could waive  their rights to full recovery. Lenders seem stuck on the idea that there is a  future value to be recaptured and that the homeowner is hiding like a thief.  Distrust breeds distrust, which leads to failure. So to bridge this gap and  break the structural and legal logjam, government should impose a solution. </p>
<p>Based on conversations with real estate lenders and lawyers,  few participants in the real estate market, at the level of the individual home  or mortgage, bring a capital markets perspective to the problem. Furthermore,  there is a deeply imbedded faith in the face value of an existing mortgage, independent  of current market forces. As the Streitfeld article makes clear, lenders view a  residential short sale as a lender approved sale where the property is sold for  less than the face value of the mortgage, and that difference must be reclaimed  from the original homeowner. This does not work. Failing that, there is  foreclosure and sale. Foreclosure is a court ordered auction of the property  for substantially less than the face value of the mortgage; that lost value can  never be recaptured by the homeowner, nor for that matter can homeowners ever  recapture their additional investment in the improvement to their homes.</p>
<p>Conceptually, it seems to me that everyone is missing an  important point. If I buy a stock for $50, its price falls. I sell it for $30,  I do not care that the buyer is the same person who sold it to me. What I care  about is preservation of remaining capital. I made a mistake, I was wrong. I  acknowledge the mistake, exit the position and move on. Applying this  perspective to the current residential real estate market and mortgage market  could put a floor on the value of residential real estate.</p>
<p>Here is how the government can help. Before a house, that is  the primary residence of a homeowner, can be put into foreclosure, Federal law  should require that the lender and the borrower each provide the other with a  current and independent appraisal of the property and engineering report, each  paying their own expenses. This lays out for both parties what the current  estimated value of the house is and the physical condition of the property. It  also tells both parties the reasonable band of value for the home, taking into  consideration the physical condition and marketability of the home. It provides  both with transparency about the other party&rsquo;s view of the current market  value. Future value of the property, either up or down, is not part of this  assessment; the reasonable estimate of current market value is all that  matters. </p>
<p>Once the lender and the homeowner have a reasonable view of  value, the homeowner should be given 90 days to buy out the mortgage, from the  current mortgage holder, at the difference between the two valuations. If  qualified and professional appraisers and engineers make the appraisals, the  spread should be reasonably small. So, for example, if the lenders appraisal  says the property is worth $350,000 and the borrower&rsquo;s appraisal says it is  worth $300,000 the buyout of the mortgage is $325,000. Taking transaction costs  and legal fees into consideration, both parties would be better off.</p>
<p>The borrower should then have 90 days to reach out to family  and friends, another bank, or find a way to raise the $325,000 to buy the  mortgage from the lender. If the borrower cannot raise the money, then the  house can be sold at the $325,000 price. Please note that I am referring to the  mortgage note, not the house. The house remains with the homeowner. What  changes is the holder of the note. In arranging the funds to buy the note, the  homeowner has the opportunity to make it clear that the future payments will be  based on the purchase value of the note, not the original amount. Other terms  and conditions can be pre-negotiated with the new holder(s) of the note. If the  alternative is a sale, the buyer putting up the $325,000, acquiring the note  and accepting a deed in lieu of foreclosure from the homeowner accomplishes  this. </p>
<p>On the lender&rsquo;s side, once the loan is in default, it has  been included in the corporate reserve calculations on the lender&rsquo;s books. The  lender has taken the charge to income, so whatever they subsequently recover is  taken back into income upon sale of the note. After the 90-day period, if the  borrower cannot raise the new funds, or get a sale made, then the foreclosure  process takes place. The lender executes with the buyer a deed in lieu of  foreclosure, releases the homeowner from any and all future claims and auctions  off the property. The lender must be required by law to liquidate the property  at whatever price is offered at auction from any and all bidders. The lender  cannot be allowed to put a reserve price on the property. The objective here is  to get the property into stable hands and help the market clear. And since a  time restriction of 90 days is placed on the homeowner, so one must be placed  on the lender. The faster the real estate is sold, the faster the market  clears. Nothing above limits a lender and borrower from negotiating a  modification agreement to achieve the same end or to reasonably extend the time  period to permit the loan to trade. </p>
<p>Let&rsquo;s think about what this does. First and foremost it  forces everyone involved to deal openly and transparently with reality and each  other, and slows the initial foreclosure process. Second, it gives a family,  facing foreclosure, time to save its home by reaching out to family and friends  or find a proper buyer. Third, by moving the mortgage into the hands of family  and friends, the homeowner has stepped up to the character test of good credit  and will be reluctant to fail on the new note. This creates opportunities for  mortgage lenders as well. They may qualify for a mortgage of $325,000 from  another institution. A homeowner might be able to raise only $150,000 from  family or friends. A bank might write a mortgage of $325,000 representing  $175,000 from the bank and $150,000, from family and friends. Lastly, and  importantly, the solution is local and does not require government funds, GSE  financing or taxpayer dollars.</p>
<p>When the government breaks the structural and legal logjam,  it forces mortgage service companies and portfolio trustees, to recognize and  promptly deal with the real values in their portfolios. Converting troubled  mortgages to cash will accelerate the development of liquidity in these  companies. Consequently AAA, AA, and A traunches of mortgage backed securities,  become liquid and tradable, bringing improved stability to vital money markets.</p>
<p>  This also puts a  floor under more important values. When families help members of their family,  they strengthen the family. When neighbors and friends help a neighbor or friend  they strengthen their community. Strong communities strengthen America. The  government of the United    States needs to unblock the systemic  obstacles to our ability to help each other and ourselves. Only the government  can do this. If Uncle Sam expects us to trust him, then he needs to have faith  in us.</p>
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